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J.M. Smucker ‘s plan to buy Twinkies -maker Hostess Brands is a risky move, if Morgan Stanley’s latest research is correct. The firm revisited its August call that a new class of weight loss medications would hamper growth at some food and beverage companies . This time it backed up its thesis with additional demographic data about grocery shoppers from Numerator Insights as well as data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The results aren’t rosy for Ding Dongs. “Our analysis reinforces the view that snacking companies such as TWNK are likely to be most adversely affected by GLP-1 adoption, while weight management food companies like SMPL and BRBR could benefit,” Morgan Stanley analyst Pamela Kaufman wrote in a note to clients on Monday. BellRing makes protein shakes and powders and owns the PowerBar brand. Its stock is up a whopping 60% year to date. But Simply Good , which owns brands like Atkins and Quest that make ready-to-drink shakes, snacks and frozen meals, has seen its stock fall nearly 15% over the same time period. In August, Morgan Stanley analysts said they expect increased adoption of GLP-1 medications like Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy will lead to a 1.3% drop in calorie consumption in the U.S. by 2035. The estimate was based on the idea that patients taking the weight loss drugs typically reduce their daily calorie intake by 20% to 30% as they cut back on daily meals by 20% and snacks by 40%, the analysts said. They also assumed at the time that these same consumers were more likely to buy indulgent snacks and packaged foods sold by brands like Smucker, Hostess and others. The new report backs this up. “Across our coverage, Numerator Insights data highlight that most center-store packaged food companies slightly over-index to consumers with obesity,” Kaufman said. Also, these same foods are the types of items that consumers are likely to cut back on when they are getting serious about losing weight, she said. The analysis showed Hostess was the most exposed to shoppers with obesity and type 2 diabetes. People with both conditions are also most likely to qualify for anti-obesity medication, the analysts said. On Monday, Smucker’s stock was down about 7%, and at one point hit a 52-week low of $129.00, after it said it would pay $5.6 billion to buy Hostess in a stock-and-cash deal. Hostess stock soared 19% on the news. Other food stocks with higher exposure to customers with obesity include Conagra , Kraft Heinz and Smucker, the report said, citing the Numerator data. “Importantly, BRBR and SMPL over-index to consumers who are addressing their obesity through lifestyle changes and prescription drugs, reinforcing their complementary qualities and potential category tailwinds from GLP-1 drugs,” the report said. In Morgan Stanley’s original report, the analysts also emphasized that food and beverage companies could ease the impact of the trend by reformulating products to have fewer calories and sugar or by shifting product mix to healthier items. —CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.
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