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“Get there early to ensure you catch the sunrise” on Enphase Energy , said Seaport Research Partners. The firm upgraded shares to buy from neutral and set a price target of $185, implying a 49.2% rally from where shares closed on Wednesday. “We think as ENPH benefits from ongoing share repurchases; continued robust growth in Europe’s residential solar market as it both thrives in existing countries and enters new ones; and, by mid- to late-2Q24, a clear emergent recovery in U.S. residential solar installations, the stock will experience multiple re-expansion,” analyst Tom Curran wrote in a Thursday note. Enphase shares have tumbled more than 53% in 2023 amid a difficult year for the residential solar energy market in the U.S. The sector has faced weak demand. California, which is the largest market for U.S. residential solar installers, also instituted a policy change that reduced a subsidy for solar panel owners for sending excess power into the grid — further impacting demand. However, Curran thinks the U.S. residential market could show an “incipient recovery” by the end of the second quarter next year. “By next June, we believe three positive factors will converge to form a rebound in U.S. home rooftop solar demand,” said Curran. “The California market will have adjusted to NEM 3.0’s economics; [and the] IRA (Inflation Reduction Act) finalization and assimilation will have strengthened the response to that law’s 30% ITC incentives for both solar PV systems and standalone energy storage.” In addition, “it will have become clear that the FFR (Fed Fund Rates) has peaked and the FOMC has prepared to imminently pivot to easing for 2H24 into 2025,” the analyst said. Meanwhile, Enphase’s growth has nearly doubled in Europe this year. The analyst believes the company remains on a robust growth trajectory in the European market through 2025, thanks to its established presence in France and Benelux, as well as share growth in Germany. Curran also thinks Enphase has ample means and motivation to continue its share repurchasing plans. The company announced late July a $1 billion share repurchase program over the next three years. “ENPH has ample firepower to steadily tap the buyback to support the stock and reinvest in itself, in our view,” said Curran, adding that the company “should continue to outshine peers and command a valuation premium.” Shares fell 1% Thursday during early trading. —CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.
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